Innovative Technique for Posterior Fixation of Vertically Unstable Pelvic Ring Fracture: A Case Report.

An obese 57-year-old woman with known hypertension and diabetes mellitus sustained multiple injuries during an accident, which caused anterior-posterior fracture-dislocation of the pelvic ring. Due to the drawbacks of conventional stabilizing methods for anterior-posterior fracture-dislocations of the hip in this setting, such as the inability to visualize anatomical landmarks fluoroscopically for the iliosacral screw technique and the compromised L5 pedicle preventing lumbopelvic fixation, the patient underwent an innovative Hula Hoop technique described here. Using the Hula Hoop technique, a technique that has rarely been studied in humans, we avoided an invasive open procedure, decreased anesthesia time, reduced the size and number of incisions, and minimized bleeding. After three months of routine physiotherapy and occupational therapy, the patient was able to walk with a walker and an ankle-foot orthosis.

Congenital hypoplastic thumbs treated by staged nonvascularized MTP joint transfer for absent MCP joints and abductor digiti minimi tendon transfer for opposition: a case series study.

BACKGROUND: We developed a 2-stage, MTP (metatarsophalangeal) joint- plus ADM (abductor digiti minimi) tendon-transfer, procedure for treatment of hypoplastic thumb. This method is intended to achieve both structural and functional goals of reconstruction. Structurally, it preserves a five-digit hand with minimal donor site complications. Functionally, it provides a functioning opposable thumb. CASE PRESENTATION: The case series included 7 patients with type IV hypoplastic thumb. At the first stage non-vascularized joint (not bone) was transplanted. In the second stage abductor digiti minimi tendon was transferred. Patients were followed for a median 5-yr period (range: 37-79 months). Functional outcome was assessed using a modified Percival assessment tool. Participants aged 17 to 36 months at the time of surgery with (2 male, 4 female). All patients were able to grasp large and small objects after the procedure. The thumb tip could actively move to touch the tips of index (2 patients) middle, ring, and little fingers (all patients) in an ulnar ward sequence and vice versa. All patients attained the ability to do lateral, palmar, and tripod pinch. As for donor site complications, none of the patients were found to have difficulty walking or keeping their balance. CONCLUSIONS: An alternative surgical procedure was developed to reconstruct a hypoplastic thumb. We obtained a good functional and cosmetic outcome with few donor site complications. Future studies will be needed to determine the long-term outcomes, to refine the selection criteria and to examine the necessity of additional procedure at the older ages.

Effect of combined paracetamol and dexamethasone vs. paracetamol on postoperative nausea vomiting after cesarean section.

OBJECTIVES: Postoperative nausea and vomiting (PONV) are common symptoms after cesarean delivery (CD) that affect patients outcomes and satisfaction. The treatment of choice is still evolving, therefore, we aimed to evaluate PONV of combined paracetamol-dexamethasone vs. paracetamol alone. METHODS: This study is a double-blind randomized controlled trial on 100 patients undergoing cesarean delivery. Participants were randomly assigned into two groups of paracetamol or combined paracetamol-dexamethasone. Nausea and vomiting score, VAS score of pain, and chill were compared between the two groups. RESULTS: The result of this study found that mild nausea 2nd h after surgery in the combined group was lesser than paracetamol group (0.03). However, there was no statistically significant difference in nausea and vomiting score in other periods of time between the two groups. VAS score of pain decreased 12th and 6th h after the surgery in the combined and paracetamol group, respectively. Chilling occurred in two patients of combined group and four patients of paracetamol group (p=0.432). CONCLUSIONS: Dexamethasone added to paracetamol might not improve pain and vomiting after cesarean delivery comparison with just paracetamol. But it can be effective for reducing the score of nausea after the surgery.

A Modified Semi-Lithotomy Position for Approach to Tibial Plateau Complex Fractures: A Technical Note.

There is no agreement on the best surgical strategy to manage multicolumnar tibial plateau fracture. The combined approach used by many investigators has been found to be an effective method. However, combined approaches call for repositioning the patient which lengthens the operation time. The sterility of the field of surgery might be jeopardized by repositioning. Intraoperative fluoroscopic imaging is hard to adjust to both parts of the combined positions. To tackle these problems without sacrificing the concept of three-column tibial plateau, we have started to use a combined medial and lateral approach without repositioning the patients using a modified semi-lithotomy position.

Clinical features, risk factors and a prediction model for in-hospital mortality among diabetic patients infected with COVID-19: data from a referral centre in Iran.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to identify risk factors of in-hospital mortality among diabetic patients infected with COVID-19. STUDY DESIGN: This is a retrospective cohort study. METHODS: Using logistic regression analysis, the independent association of potential prognostic factors and COVID-19 in-hospital mortality was investigated in three models. Model 1 included demographic data and patient history; model 2 consisted of model 1, plus vital signs and pulse oximetry measurements at hospital admission; and model 3 included model 2, plus laboratory test results at hospital admission. The odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were reported for each predictor in the different models. Moreover, to examine the discriminatory powers of the models, a corrected area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated. RESULTS: Among 560 patients with diabetes (men = 291) who were hospitalised for COVID-19, the mean age of the study population was 61.8 (standard deviation [SD] 13.4) years. During a median length of hospitalisation of 6 days, 165 deaths (men = 93) were recorded. In model 1, age and a history of cognitive impairment were associated with higher mortality; however, taking statins, oral antidiabetic drugs and beta-blockers was associated with a lower risk of mortality (AUC = 0.76). In model 2, adding the data for respiratory rate (OR 1.07 [95% CI 1.00-1.14]) and oxygen saturation (OR 0.95 [95% CI 0.92-0.98]) slightly increased the AUC to 0.80. In model 3, the data for platelet count (OR 0.99 [95% CI 0.99-1.00]), lactate dehydrogenase (OR 1.002 [95% CI 1.001-1.003]), potassium (OR 2.02 [95% CI 1.33-3.08]) and fasting plasma glucose (OR 1.04 [95% CI 1.02-1.07]) significantly improved the discriminatory power of the model to AUC 0.86 (95% CI 0.83-0.90). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with type 2 diabetes, a combination of past medical and drug history and pulse oximetry data, with four non-expensive laboratory measures, was significantly associated with in-hospital COVID-19 mortality.

Comparison of the Sedative, Hemodynamic, and Anesthetic Effect of Dexmedetomidine, Ketamine, and Etomidate on Cataract Surgery by Phacoemulsification Method: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Purpose: To compare dexmedetomidine, ketamine, and etomidate in the induction of sedation and hemodynamic changes in patients undergoing cataract surgery by phacoemulsification method. Methods: This was a double-blind clinical trial study carried out on 128 patients. Using the block randomization method, the patients were divided into four equal groups (dexmedetomidine, ketamine, etomidate, and control). Mean arterial pressure, heart rate, and arterial oxygen saturation, Ramsay Sedation Score were recorded every 5 min intraoperatively, in recovery, and 1, 2, 4, and 6 h postoperatively. Moreover, the Aldrete score was measured in recovery time for discharge from the recovery room. Results: The mean age of participants was found to be 63.16 ± 6.07 years, and there was no statistically significant difference between the groups in terms of age, sex, and body mass index, SpO2, and heart rate (P > 0.05). From 15 min after the start of surgery to 6 h postoperatively, the mean arterial pressure in the dexmedetomidine group was significantly lower than that in the other three groups, including ketamine, etomidate, and control (P < 0.05). The mean sedation score (Ramsay) during recovery and 1 h postoperatively was higher in the dexmedetomidine group compared with that in the control group, whereas the recovery time in the dexmedetomidine group was higher than that in the other groups (P < 0.001). In addition, the amount of propofol consumption in the two groups of dexmedetomidine and ketamine was significantly less than that in the etomidate and control groups (P < 0.001). Conclusions: According to the results, dexmedetomidine caused better hemodynamic changes with more reduction in blood pressure and heart rate, and patients in the dexmedetomidine group did not require any specific medical treatment. Moreover, higher patient satisfaction and longer recovery duration were observed in the dexmedetomidine group than in the other study groups. As such, it is suggested that dexmedetomidine be used as an adjuvant in cataract surgery for more sedation, analgesia, and optimal intraoperative conditions.

The path to minimizing instability in developmental dysplasia of the hip: is Capsulorrhaphy a necessity or a futile habit?

BACKGROUND: To evaluate and quantify the intraoperative effect of capsulorrhaphy on the deep seating of femoral head within the acetabulum as measured by medial joint space, a surrogate measure of acetabular-head contact. METHODS: In order to determine the exact effect of capsulorrhaphy, we prospectively scrutinized a consecutive sample of 18 patients with unilateral dysplastic hips aging > 18 months and followed them for a period of at least 12 months. The procedure of open reduction is described in detail. Two pediatric orthopedists carried out the operations from August 2014 to January 2019 at a tertiary pediatric hospital. Intraoperatively, AP radiographs of the pelvis were obtained before and after capsulorrhaphy. The distance between the inferomedial edge of the proximal femoral metaphysis and the lateral edge of the obturator foramen was recorded. To determine if there were differences in medial joint space due to capsulorrhaphy, a generalized linear model was run on the study sample. All patients were followed for at least 12 months to determine the rate of re-dislocation. RESULTS: Mean age (±standard deviation) of the participants was 37.5 (±24.7) months. All cases underwent Salter osteotomy, 5 cases needed femoral shortening (27.8%) and none needed derotational osteotomy. Capsulorrhaphy lead to a statistically significant decrease in the mean medial joint space from 1.59 cm before (95% CI: 1.12-2.05) to 0.76 cm after (95% CI: 0.50-1.02) the capsulorrhaphy (P < 0.001). When we took the effect of age into account the corresponding figures were 1.47 (95% CI: 1.22-1.75) and 0.67 (95% CI: 0.39-0.94), respectively (P < 0.001). After follow up periods of 1 to 5.5 years, none of the patients experienced instability or re-dislocation. CONCLUSIONS: Capsulorrhaphy, independently, of age was associated with a 1-cm decrease in the mean medial hip joint space and a more deeply seated femoral head. Furthermore, this study presents a successful experience with capsulorrhaphy to prevent hip instability.

The Role of Metabolic Syndrome and its Components in Incident Fracture: A 15-Year Follow-Up Among the Iranian Population.

CONTEXT: The relationship between metabolic syndrome (MetS) and the risk of fracture is a matter of debate. OBJECTIVE: This work aimed to determine the impact of MetS and its components on the risk of hospitalized fractures, during a median follow-up of 15.9 years. METHODS: A total of 7,520 participants (4,068 women) 30 years or older entered the study. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression were applied for data analysis. RESULTS: The prevalence of MetS was 40.0% and 40.4% in men and women, respectively. During the follow-up, hospitalized fracture was observed in 305 cases (men = 152). The multivariable hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of MetS for incident fracture for men and women was 0.72 (0.49-1.05, P = .08) and 1.38 (0.96-1.98, P = .08), respectively. In the fully adjusted model, high fasting plasma glucose (FPG) among men tended to be associated with a lower risk of fracture [0.67 (0.44-1.02, P = .06)]; among women, high waist circumference (WC) was associated with a greater risk [2.40 (1.55-3.73)]. Among the population 50 years and older in the pooled sample, MetS was not accompanied by the risk of fracture, but high WC was associated with a higher risk [1.58 (1.07-2.33)]. For incident hip/pelvic fracture, abdominal obesity-but not MetS per se-was also a strong and independent risk factor. CONCLUSION: A significant sex difference in the association between MetS and its components with incident fracture was observed. Women with central adiposity were at increased risk of hospitalized fracture, whereas men with high FPG were at decreased risk.

Sex-specific incidence rates and risk factors for fracture: A 16-year follow-up from the Tehran lipid and glucose study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the population-based incidence of any-fracture and its potential risk factors in a sex-split cohort of the Iranian population. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 3477 men and 4085 women with a mean (SD) age of 47.92(13.1) and 45.88(11.47) years, respectively were entered into the study. The age-standardized incidence rates per 100,000 person-years were reported for the whole population and each sex separately. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for potential risk factors. Only fractures requiring inpatients' care were considered as the outcome. We also defined major osteoporotic fractures (MOF) as the composite of the fractures that occurred in the vertebral, wrist, hip and pelvic sites among population aged ≥50 years. RESULTS: During the median (IQR) follow-up of 15.9 years, 4.34%men and 3.75% women experienced at least one incident any-fracture. The annual age-standardized incidence rates (95% CI) among men and women were 330.9 (279.6-388.9) and 319.4(268.1-377.3) per 100,000 person-years, respectively; the corresponding values for incidence of MOF was 202.2(142.3-278.6) in men and 342.1(260.4-441.0) per 100,000 person-years for women. In the multivariable model, among the whole population, age groups ≥50 years, central obesity [HR: 95% CI 1.77(1.32-2.39)], current smoking [1.59(1.15-2.20)] and using steroid medications [2.20(1.04-4.67)] significantly increased the risk of incident fracture (all P < 0.05); however the impact of the first two risk factors were more prominent among women (P for interaction ≤0.01). Moreover, being obese was associated with a lower risk of incident first fracture in the total population [HR: 95% CI: 0.61(0.40-0.92)]. Being men [HR: 95% CI: 0.54(0.30-0.99)] and prediabetes status [HR: 95% CI: 0.53(0.30-0.95)] were also associated with lower risk for MOF. CONCLUSION: This is the first report of long-term incidence rate of any-fracture and MOF conducted in the metropolitan city of Tehran. Among modifiable risk factors of fracture, in the whole population smoking habit and using steroid medications and particularly for women central obesity should be considered as main risk factors for preventive strategies. Prediabetes status was associated with lower risk of MOF.

Anterior Distal Hemiepiphysiodesis of Tibia for Treatment of Recurrent Equinus Deformity Due to Flat-Top Talus in Surgically Treated Clubfoot.

Treatment of persistent or recurrent equinus after repeated surgical releases can be challenging in patients with clubfoot. Anterior distal tibial epiphysiodesis has recently been used in patients with recurrent progressive equinus deformity, with inconsistent outcomes. Herein, we used this technique in a carefully selected subgroup (8 children, 9 feet) of patients with a severe equinus deformity and a flat-top talus. The patients were followed up with radiological and clinical measures for 12 to 18 months. The mean angle of the ankle improved significantly (25.5°, p < .0001). The mean anterior distal tibial angle decreased from 86.3° to 69° (p < .0001). Plantigrade foot was obtained in all patients, except 1 with arthrogryposis. When applied to carefully selected patients, anterior distal hemiepiphysiodesis of the tibia is an effective method for management of recurrent equinus deformity.

Diabetes Mellitus: Findings from 20 Years of the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study.

CONTEXT: We summarized findings from Tehran lipid and glucose study (TLGS) about different aspects of type 2 diabetes (T2D) over the span of nearly 2 decades. EVIDENCE ACQUISITION: A review was undertaken to retrieve papers related to all aspects of T2D from the earliest date available up to January 30, 2018. RESULTS: An annual crude incidence rate of 10 per 1000 person-years of follow-up was found for T2D in adult participants. Overall incidence rate of pre-diabetes/T2D was 36.3 per 1000 person-years or about 1% each year among youth. Diabetes was associated with increased risk of CVD [hazard ratio (HR): 1.86, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.57 - 2.27] and mortality [HR: 2.56; 95% CI: 2.08 - 3.16] in the total population. Compared with non-diabetic men and women, their diabetic counterparts survived 1.4 and 0.7 years shorter, respectively, during 15 years of follow-up. Wrist circumference, hyperinsulinaemia, 25-hydroxy vitamin D and increase in alanin aminotranferase provided incremental prognostic information beyond the traditional risk factors for incident T2D in adults. Using decision tree algorithms, a number of high risk groups were found for incident T2D. A probability of 84% was found for incidence of T2D among a group of men with fasting plasma glucose (FPG) > 5.3 mmol/L and waist to height ratio (WHtR) > 0.56, and women with FPG > 5.2 mmol/L and WHtR > 0.56. CONCLUSIONS: Original TLGS studies have contributed greatly to clarify important evidence regarding the epidemiology and risk factors for T2D among Iranian population.

Evaluation of the Degenerative Changes of the Distal Intervertebral Discs after Internal Fixation Surgery in Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis.

STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective study. PURPOSE: Lumbar intervertebral disc degeneration is an important cause of low back pain. OVERVIEW OF LITERATURE: Spinal fusion is often reported to have a good course for adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS). However, many studies have reported that adjacent segment degeneration is accelerated after lumbar spinal fusion. Radiography is a simple method used to evaluate the orientation of the vertebral column. magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is the method most often used to specifically evaluate intervertebral disc degeneration. The Pfirrmann classification is a well-known method used to evaluate degenerative lumbar disease. After spinal fusion, an increase in stress, excess mobility, increased intra-disc pressure, and posterior displacement of the axis of motion have been observed in the adjacent segments. METHODS: we retrospectively secured and analyzed the data of 15 patients (four boys and 11 girls) with AIS who underwent a spinal fusion surgery. We studied the full-length view of the spine (anterior-posterior and lateral) from the X-ray and MRI obtained from all patients before surgery. Postoperatively, another full-length spine X-ray and lumbosacral MRI were obtained from all participants. Then, pelvic tilt, sacral slope, curve correction, and fused and free segments before and after surgery were calculated based on Xray studies. MRI images were used to estimate the degree to which intervertebral discs were degenerated using Pfirrmann grading system. Pfirrmann grade before and after surgery were compared with Wilcoxon signed rank test. While analyzing the contribution of potential risk factors for the post-spinal fusion Pfirrmann grade of disc degeneration, we used generalized linear models with robust standard error estimates to account for intraclass correlation that may have been present between discs of the same patient. RESULTS: The mean age of the participant was 14 years, and the mean curvature before and after surgery were 67.8 and 23.8, respectively (p<0.05). During the median follow-up of 5 years, the mean degree of the disc degeneration significantly increased in all patients after surgery (p<0.05) with a Pfirrmann grade of 1 and 2.8 in the L2-L3 before and after surgery, respectively. The corresponding figures at L3-L4, L4-L5, and L5-S1 levels were 1.28 and 2.43, 1.07 and 2.35, and 1 and 2.33, respectively. The lower was the number of free discs below the fusion level, the higher was the Pfirrmann grade of degeneration (p<0.001). Conversely, the higher was the number of the discs fused together, the higher was the Pfirrmann grade. CONCLUSIONS: we observed that the disc degeneration aggravated after spinal fusion for scoliosis. While the degree of degeneration as measured by Pfirrmann grade was directly correlated by the number of fused segments, it was negatively correlated with the number of discs that remained free below the lowermost level of the fusion.

A New Modified Method for Inserting Iliosacral Screw versus the Conventional Method.

STUDY DESIGN: Methodological study. PURPOSE: To our knowledge, this is the first study to introduce a new modified method for inserting iliosacral screws and to compare its results with those of a conventional method. OVERVIEW OF LITERATURE: Previous techniques, such as open reduction and internal fixation, are associated with perioperative hemorrhage, postoperative infection, and neurological deficits. Although percutaneous iliosacral screw insertion confers the advantage of being minimally invasive, leading to less blood loss and a low postoperative infection rate, it harbors the risk of screw malpositioning due to narrow sacral proportions and a high interindividual variability. METHODS: Nine cadaveric pelvises were included in this study, with one hemipelvis of each being assigned to the new modified method and the other to the conventional iliosacral screw insertion method. In the new modified method, the guidewire entry point was determined using a lateral sacral X-ray. To do so, we first identified the anterosuperior quadrant of the S1 body on one hemipelvis. The anterosuperior quadrant was further divided into four imaginary quadrants, and the guidewire was inserted into the posteroinferior quadrant. The guidewire trajectory was perpendicular to the sagittal plane so that the guidewire resembled a single point in the lateral sacral view. Guidewires were inserted into corresponding hemipelves using the conventional method as described in the literature. Subsequently, an axial computed tomography scan with 1-mm fine cuts was obtained, and sagittal and coronal views were reconstructed. The distance of the guidewire from the sacral canal, anterior sacral cortex, and first sacral foramen was measured in axial, sagittal, and coronal views. The minimum measurement among different views was defined as the safety index of the insertion methods. The conventional and new modified methods were then compared in terms of safety and duration of the procedure. RESULTS: The minimum distance of the guidewire from the S1 foramen and anterior sacral cortex was not significantly different between the two methods. However, the minimum distance between the guidewire and sacral canal was significantly greater in the new modified method than in the conventional method. The duration of guidewire insertion was significantly shorter in the new modified method than in the conventional method. CONCLUSIONS: This new modified method of iliosacral screw insertion could be safely and simply implemented while taking less surgical time than the conventional methods.

Mortality prediction of a body shape index versus traditional anthropometric measures in an Iranian population: Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study.

OBJECTIVES: A body shape index (ABSI) based on waist circumference (WC) adjusted for height and weight has been shown to be a risk factor for premature mortality. The aim of this study was to demonstrate that ABSI predicts mortality hazard better than other anthropometric measures in an Iranian population. METHODS: The study population included 9242 Iranian participants in Tehran, aged ≥30 y, followed for a median 10 y. The risk for mortality was estimated by incorporating ABSI, body mass index (BMI), WC, waist-to-hip ratio (WHpR), and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), one at a time, into multivariate models as well as in terms of the effect size, calibration, discrimination, and added predictive ability. RESULTS: We documented 487 deaths with the annual incidence rate of mortality per 1000 persons being 3.9 for women and 8.2 for men. ABSI was associated with all-cause mortality in a curvilinear fashion. ABSI was more strongly associated with all-cause mortality than were BMI, WC, and WHtR. Among women, however, WHpR was observed to be a stronger predictor of all-cause mortality than ABSI. Among both men and women, ABSI improved the risk classification based on other anthropometric measures, the only exception being WHpR. None of the anthropometric measures studied could add any value to the predictive ability of the Framingham's general cardiovascular disease algorithm. CONCLUSION: ABSI was the strongest predictor of all-cause mortality among the anthropometric measurements, except WHpR in women. When ABSI was added to the Framingham general cardiovascular disease algorithm, it failed to improve the predictive ability.

Risk Factors for Incidence of Cardiovascular Diseases and All-Cause Mortality in a Middle Eastern Population over a Decade Follow-up: Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study.

BACKGROUND: To examine the association between potentially modifiable risk factors with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality and to quantify their population attributable fractions (PAFs) among a sample of Tehran residents. METHODS: Overall, 8108 participants (3686 men) aged≥30 years, were investigated. To examine the association between risk factors and outcomes, multivariate sex-adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression analysis were conducted, using age as time-scale in two models including general/central adiposity: 1)adjusted for different independent variables including smoking, education, family history of CVD and sex for both outcomes and additionally adjusted for prevalent CVD for all-cause mortality 2)further adjusted for obesity mediators (hypertension, diabetes, lipid profile and chronic kidney disease). Separate models were used including either general or central adiposity. RESULTS: During median follow-up of >10 years, 827 first CVD events and 551 deaths occurred. Both being overweight (hazard ratio (HR), 95%CI: 1.41, 1.18-1.66, PAF 13.66) and obese (1.51, 1.24-1.84, PAF 9.79) played significant roles for incident CVD in the absence of obesity mediators. Predicting CVD, in the presence of general adiposity and its mediators, significant positive associations were found for hypercholesterolemia (1.59, 1.36-1.85, PAF 16.69), low HDL-C (1.21, 1.03-1.41, PAF 12.32), diabetes (1.86, 1.57-2.27, PAF 13.87), hypertension (1.79, 1.46-2.19, PAF 21.62) and current smoking (1.61, 1.34-1.94, PAF 7.57). Central adiposity remained a significant positive predictor, even after controlling for mediators (1.17, 1.01-1.35, PAF 7.55). For all-cause mortality, general/central obesity did not have any risk even in the absence of obesity mediators. Predictors including diabetes (2.56, 2.08-3.16, PAF 24.37), hypertension (1.43, 1.11-1.84, PAF 17.13), current smoking (1.75, 1.38-2.22, PAF 7.71), and low education level (1.59, 1.01-2.51, PAF 27.08) were associated with higher risk, however, hypertriglyceridemia (0.83, 0.68-1.01) and being overweight (0.71, 0.58-0.87) were associated with lower risk. CONCLUSIONS: Modifiable risk factors account for more than 70% risk for both CVD and mortality events.

Stata Modules for Calculating Novel Predictive Performance Indices for Logistic Models.

BACKGROUND: Prediction is a fundamental part of prevention of cardiovascular diseases (CVD). The development of prediction algorithms based on the multivariate regression models loomed several decades ago. Parallel with predictive models development, biomarker researches emerged in an impressively great scale. The key question is how best to assess and quantify the improvement in risk prediction offered by new biomarkers or more basically how to assess the performance of a risk prediction model. Discrimination, calibration, and added predictive value have been recently suggested to be used while comparing the predictive performances of the predictive models' with and without novel biomarkers. OBJECTIVES: Lack of user-friendly statistical software has restricted implementation of novel model assessment methods while examining novel biomarkers. We intended, thus, to develop a user-friendly software that could be used by researchers with few programming skills. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We have written a Stata command that is intended to help researchers obtain cut point-free and cut point-based net reclassification improvement index and (NRI) and relative and absolute Integrated discriminatory improvement index (IDI) for logistic-based regression analyses.We applied the commands to a real data on women participating the Tehran lipid and glucose study (TLGS) to examine if information of a family history of premature CVD, waist circumference, and fasting plasma glucose can improve predictive performance of the Framingham's "general CVD risk" algorithm. RESULTS: The command is addpred for logistic regression models. CONCLUSIONS: The Stata package provided herein can encourage the use of novel methods in examining predictive capacity of ever-emerging plethora of novel biomarkers.

Added value of total serum nitrate/nitrite for prediction of cardiovascular disease in middle east caucasian residents in Tehran.

Data on the association between serum nitrate/nitrite and cardiovascular disease (CVD) is controversial; the aim of this study was to examine the potential utility of serum nitrate/nitrite in prediction of CVD. A total of 2443 adult participants, free from CVD at baseline were included. The probability of developing CVD was estimated by incorporating traditional CVD risk factors into a logistic regression model in the presence of serum nitrate/nitrite. The probability of CVD was calculated using Ln-transformed CVD risk factors as a covariate in the presence of Ln-transformed nitrate/nitrite in the final model. The added value of nitrate/nitrite was estimated using receiver operating characteristic curves and the net reclassification index (NRI). During follow-up, 169 events occurred. The multivariate odds ratio (95% confidence interval) for each 1 unit of increase in the Ln-transformed traditional risk factors and Ln-transformed nitrate/nitrite, were 3.20 (2.67-3.84) and 1.35 (1.01-1.80) for incident CVD, respectively. The areas under the curves of discrimination for models with and without nitrate/nitrite were not significantly different; however, incorporating nitrate/nitrite to the traditional CVD risk model can help appropriately reclassify over 6% of individuals at risk. In conclusion, serum nitrate/nitrite levels were independently associated with incident CVD. Measurement of serum nitrate/nitrite provided information beyond individual data on risk factors and improved prediction of CVD.

Survival Regression Modeling Strategies in CVD Prediction.

BACKGROUND: A fundamental part of prevention is prediction. Potential predictors are the sine qua non of prediction models. However, whether incorporating novel predictors to prediction models could be directly translated to added predictive value remains an area of dispute. The difference between the predictive power of a predictive model with (enhanced model) and without (baseline model) a certain predictor is generally regarded as an indicator of the predictive value added by that predictor. Indices such as discrimination and calibration have long been used in this regard. Recently, the use of added predictive value has been suggested while comparing the predictive performances of the predictive models with and without novel biomarkers. OBJECTIVES: User-friendly statistical software capable of implementing novel statistical procedures is conspicuously lacking. This shortcoming has restricted implementation of such novel model assessment methods. We aimed to construct Stata commands to help researchers obtain the aforementioned statistical indices. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We have written Stata commands that are intended to help researchers obtain the following. 1, Nam-D'Agostino X2 goodness of fit test; 2, Cut point-free and cut point-based net reclassification improvement index (NRI), relative absolute integrated discriminatory improvement index (IDI), and survival-based regression analyses. We applied the commands to real data on women participating in the Tehran lipid and glucose study (TLGS) to examine if information relating to a family history of premature cardiovascular disease (CVD), waist circumference, and fasting plasma glucose can improve predictive performance of Framingham's general CVD risk algorithm. RESULTS: The command is adpredsurv for survival models. CONCLUSIONS: Herein we have described the Stata package "adpredsurv" for calculation of the Nam-D'Agostino X2 goodness of fit test as well as cut point-free and cut point-based NRI, relative and absolute IDI, and survival-based regression analyses. We hope this work encourages the use of novel methods in examining predictive capacity of the emerging plethora of novel biomarkers.

CVD-predictive performances of "a body shape index" versus simple anthropometric measures: Tehran lipid and glucose study.

PURPOSE: To examine whether a body shape index (ABSI) calculated by using waist circumference (WC) adjusted for height and weight could improve the predictive performances for cardiovascular disease (CVD) of the Framingham's general CVD algorithm and to compare its predictive performances with other anthropometric measures. METHODS: We analyzed data on a 10-year population-based follow-up of 8,248 (4,471 women) individuals aged ≥30 years, free of CVD at baseline. CVD risk was estimated for a 1 SD increment in ABSI, body mass index (BMI), waist-to-hip ratio (WHpR) and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), by incorporating them, one at a time, into multivariate accelerated failure time models. RESULTS: ABSI was associated with multivariate-adjusted increased risk of incident CVD among both men (1.26, 95% CI 1.09-1.46) and women (1.17, 1.03-1.32). Among men, for a one-SD increment, ABSI conferred a greater increase in the hazard of CVD [1.26 (1.09-1.46)] than did BMI [1.06 (0.94-1.20)], WC [1.15(1.03-1.28)], WHpR [1.02 (1.01-1.03)] and WHtR [1.16 (1.02-1.31)], and the corresponding figures among women were 1.17 (1.03-1.32), 1.02 (0.90-1.16), 1.11 (0.98-1.27), 1.03 (1.01-1.05) and 1.14 (0.99-1.03), respectively. ABSI as well as other anthropometric measures failed to add to the predictive ability of the Framingham general CVD algorithm either. CONCLUSIONS: Although ABSI could not improve the predictability of the Framingham algorithm, it provides more information than other traditional anthropometric measures in settings where information on traditional CVD risk factors are not available, and it can be used as a practical criterion to predict adiposity-related health risks in clinical assessments.

Intermediate-Risk Chronic Stable Angina: Neutrophil-Lymphocyte Ratio and Fibrinogen Levels Improved Predicting Angiographically-Detected Coronary Artery Disease.

BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease (CHD) is the leading cause of death worldwide. Research indicates that coronary atherosclerosis is the most frequent cause of CHD. Evidence is scarce concerning the clinical efficacy of fibrinogen or neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) measurement in risk-stratifying patients with chronic stable angina. OBJECTIVES: To examine the independent and incremental prognostic value of fibrinogen and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) for angiographically-detected coronary artery disease (CAD). PATIENTS AND METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, angiography was performed for 183 Iranian patients with chronic stable angina with exercise ECG-determined intermediate risk. Generalized estimated equations were used to obtain the odd ratio (OR) of CAD for a 1-unit increase in log-NLR and a 1-SD increase in plasma fibrinogen. Models were adjusted for established CAD risk factors. Integrated discriminatory improvement index (IDI) and net reclassification improvement index (NRI) were used as measures of predictive ability for CAD, combined with traditional risk factors by NLR and fibrinogen. RESULTS: The mean age of the participants was 57.5, with 51.9% being male. Only 12% of participants had angiographically-determined patent coronary arteries. The number of participants with one, two, and three-vessel stenosis were 76, 31, 31, respectively, while 45 did not have stenosed vessels. NLR and fibrinogen levels were significantly higher in patients with stenosis in two (2.4 and 512 mg.dL-1) or three (2.6 and 517 mg.dL-1) coronary arteries, as compared to the group of patients with no significant involvement (2 and 430 mg.dL-1) (all P < 0.01). Patients with a higher NLR and a higher fibrinogen levels were more likely to have higher grades of CAD. OR log-NLR = 1.36 (95% CI: 1.05 - 1.94) and OR Z-Fibrinogen = 1.61 (95% CI: 1.18 - 2.22). When NLR and fibrinogen were added to the traditional risk factors separately, the NRIs were 0.170 (0.023 - 0.324) and 0.380 (0.214 - 0.543), respectively. The NRI was 0.460 (0.303 - 0.620) when both NLR and fibrinogen added to traditional risk factors simultaneously. CONCLUSIONS: NLR and fibrinogen predicted CAD, independent of traditional CAD risk factors. Both measures (whether separately or together) substantially enhanced the predictive performance of traditional risk factors for identifying patients with CAD.